Why Trump Won
"It's the economy, stupid." - James Carville, 1992
Donald Trump won the 2024 presidential election against Kamala Harris due to several key factors:
Economic concerns: Trump's emphasis on economic growth and job creation resonated with many voters who were worried about inflation and rising costs under the Biden administration12.
Immigration policy: Trump's tough stance on border security and immigration control appealed to voters concerned about the surge in border crossings during Biden's presidency12.
Swing state victories: Trump secured crucial wins in battleground states like Pennsylvania, Georgia, and North Carolina, which were pivotal in securing the Electoral College victory137.
Working-class support: Trump maintained strong support among working-class white voters, especially men, and made inroads with Latino and Black male voters1.
Cultural issues: Trump's campaign tapped into cultural grievances and concerns about progressive policies, which resonated with many conservative and moderate voters24.
Voter dissatisfaction: There was growing frustration with the Democratic Party's perceived leftward shift, which Trump capitalized on24.
Campaign strategy: Trump's campaign focused on energizing his base and targeting key demographics in swing states, which proved effective13.
While Trump's victory was decisive in the Electoral College, it's important to note that the election was closely contested, and the popular vote margin was likely narrow34. The outcome reflects a deeply divided electorate and highlights the ongoing political polarization in the United States.
Why Kamala lost
There were several key criticisms of Kamala Harris's 2024 presidential campaign:
Inability to differentiate from Biden: Harris struggled to clearly distinguish herself from President Biden's policies and administration, which made it difficult for her to present a unique vision12.
Lack of clear messaging: Harris had trouble articulating a clear and compelling message for her campaign beyond opposing Trump5.
Failure to connect with key demographics: Harris lost support among important Democratic constituencies compared to Biden in 2020, including Latino voters, young voters, and even women to some extent10.
Association with Biden's unpopular policies: As part of the Biden administration, Harris was tied to policies that many voters were dissatisfied with, particularly on economic issues57.
Perceived lack of experience: Some voters questioned Harris's readiness to lead, especially compared to her opponent3.
Struggles with unscripted moments: Harris had difficulty in interviews and unscripted campaign events, which affected public perception of her abilities7.
Inability to energize the Democratic base: Harris failed to generate the same level of enthusiasm among core Democratic voters as Biden did in 2020710.
Challenges in addressing cultural issues: Harris struggled to effectively counter Trump's messaging on cultural and social issues that resonated with many voters7.
Perceived weakness on economic matters: Many voters prioritized economic concerns, an area where Harris failed to gain an advantage over Trump57.
Difficulty in presenting herself as an agent of change: As the incumbent vice president, Harris struggled to embody the change that many voters were seeking5.
These criticisms collectively contributed to Harris's defeat, as she was unable to overcome the challenges posed by both her association with the Biden administration and her own campaign shortcomings.
Democratic Turnout was Poor
In addition to economic headwinds and deteriorating margins with their base, it looks like Democrats also simply had bad turnout. Predictions of final turnout are hovering somewhere in the neighborhood 152 million votes. That would be a decrease from the 158 million who voted in 2020 and would be equivalent to about 61 percent of eligible voters. That would be a decline from 66 percent in 2020.
BUT WE MUST REMEMBER:
Aside from being a past president, and a popular TV personality for many years, Trump ran for president four times, in 2000, 2016, 2020 and 2024. He also unofficially campaigned in 2012. Kamala Harris was Vice-President for 3 1/2 years, little known by most people, and in the race for just 117 DAYS. She did a outstanding job in the very short time she had to prepare and run a presidential campaign.
The American people wanted to end the Afghan war and Biden was saddled with Trump’s terrible deal with the Taliban. Inflation was a global phenomenon and it was unfair to entirely blame Biden when by 2023 America had the lowest inflation rate among the Group of 7 countries. The Biden administration had finally cracked down on the border and had endorsed a tough new border bill.
Harris' campaign rightly argued that Trump nostalgia was misplaced. It was wrong to give the former president a pass for the pandemic, or for the chaos and murder spikes of 2020. His term did not end in 2019, with peace and prosperity. It ended near the beginning of 2021 with disease, violence and cultural decay. Even the memories of the time before Covid are idealized. There was an immense amount of domestic turmoil before the pandemic. And our experience teaches us that we can count on Trump to be performative, but we cannot count on him to perform. There was a reason voters tossed him out of office once before.
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